Correction! My original interpretation of Secret Entrance (that you look at the top card of the Encounter Deck instead of adding it to the staging area) was the correct one. Thus, my previous post (victory on the fourth attempt) was valid!
The Recap
This is a swingy quest.
A good deck and a good strategy are a needed, but what good is that when you are dealt six shadow cards with burgle effects during Smaug's first attack in stage 3? And I though the 4+ burgle effect chain during the previous attempt was bad (the "+" is from running out of heroes before the chain stopped)!
But, with that said, those instances should be rare. I read recently (at Tales From the Cards or Hall of Beorn?) that Caleb and the team playtested this set and found they did not see a chain of more than 2-3 that often. If you go into the third stage fully prepared to handle that at least once, then attack and/or quest like crazy, you should be able to get out a measurable win percentage (25% maybe?). That needs to combine with your strategy for burgle attempts during stage 2. As I mentioned previously, my tactic was to pile up the cards and hope for the best. And maybe I could have upped my win percentage if more intentionality had gone into that aspect of the quest. But I honestly liked playing this deck and that is worth a lower win ratio to me.
The Deck
I tried to fine-tune the deck a little between attempts. While I feel (pretty?) confident that the original deck would have pulled out a victory during attempt #4, why not try to make it a little stronger?
For my first two attempts, I simply switched out Gaining Strength for Risk Some Light. Resource accumulation was going just fine and I hoped this addition would help control the encounter deck, especially Smaug the Magnificent's attacks, thus doubling the preventative power I have with Dawn Take You All. In reality, attempt #5 & 6 had me use the card to simply see the doom that was almost upon me (especially during attempt 6, where three cards with burgle text came up). So that got taken out and replaced with Daeron's Runes to help with card draw. A Very Good Tale is another (strong) contender for that spot.
For attempts 7 and 8, I ditched Narvi's belt in favor of Song of Travel. While I did use the belt to pull out some Lore cards at first, I really mainly wanted the belt for a Spirit icon. With a lot of high-cost leadership icons on the table, a neutral one-cost attachment was a better fit.
I also ditched King Under the Mountain. Great card, but I already had some good card draw going on and always wanted the Leadership resources for other uses. I increased Fast Hitch and Steward of Gondor up from x2 to x3, hopefully guaranteeing a draw during the game.
As for strategy: Putting the Steward on Dain instead of Bifur was the way to go. There are some great 2 & 3 cost leadership cards you want to get out as often as possible here. Then you want to slap on a Song of Travel and have him handle Untroubled by Darkness during stage 3.
Dain's Mountaineers, v.2.1
Heroes
Dain Ironfoot
Ori
Bifur (Khazad-dum)
Allies
Miner of the Iron Hills x3
Longbeard Map-Maker x3
Longbeard Elder x3
Kili x2
Fili x2
Gandalf x3
Erebor Hammersmith x3
Erebor Record Keeper x3
Attachements
Legacy of Durin x2
Steward of Gondor x3
Fast Hitch x3
Protector of Lorien x3
Song of Wisdom x3
Events
Dawn Take You All x3
Ancestral Knowledge x3
Lure of Moria x3
Untroubled by Darkness x3
Daeron's Runes x3
Treasure
Bilbo's Magic RingSting
Orcrist
Glamdring
Set starting threat to 26
Draw: Longbeard Map-Maker, Miner of the Iron Hills, Longbeard Map-Maker, Dawn Take You All,
Protector of Lorien, Fili
Encounter Setup
Add The Lonely Mountain and Smaug the Golden to the staging area
Place Erebor treasures under The Lonely Mountain
Set Smaug the Magnificent and A Bare Patch out of play
Pay 1 resource (Dain -1) to add 1 resource to Bifur's pool (2)
Play: Longbeard Map-Maker (Ori -1, Bifur -2)
Spend 1 Baggins resource (Bilbo -1) to search deck for Bilbo's Magic Ring and add it to my hand.
Play: Bilbo's Magic Ring. Attach to Bilbo.
Exhaust Bilbo's Magic Ring (raise threat to 27) to add 1 resource to Bilbo's pool.
Spend 1 Baggins resource (Bilbo -1) to search deck for Sting and add it to my hand.
Play: Sting. Attach to Bilbo.
Quest Phase, Travel Phase, Encounter Phase, Combat Phase
Skipped or irrelevant due to stage 1B's text
Refresh Phase
Ready none
Raise threat to 28
Round 2
Resource Phase
+1 Dain (1), +1 Ori (1), +1 Bifur (1) +1 Bilbo (1)
Draw: Erebor Hammersmith
Planning Phase
Play: Erebor Hammersmith (Ori -1, Bifur -1)
Quest Phase
Commit: Bilbo Baggins
Total willpower: 2
Reveal: Fighting Among Friends (no non-Baggins sphere committed; no effect)
Total threat:2
No progress placed
Travel Phase
No travel
Encounter Phase
No engagements
Combat Phase
No combat
Refresh Phase
Ready Bilbo
Raise threat to 29
Round 3
Resource Phase
+1 Dain (2), +1 Ori (1), +1 Bifur (1), +1 Bilbo (2)
Draw: Lure of Moria
Draw: Steward of Gondor
Planning Phase
Play: Steward of Gondor (Dain -2)
Exhaust Steward of Gondor. +2 Dain (2)
Quest Phase
Commit: Bilbo
Total willpower: 2
Reveal: Desolation of Smaug
Total threat: 5
Raise threat to 32
Travel Phase
Travel to Desolation of Smaug
Encounter Phase
No engagement
Combat Phase
No combat
Refresh Phase
Ready Bilbo
Raise threat to 33
Round 4
Resource Phase
+1 Dain (3), +1 Ori (2), +1 Bifur (2), +1 Bilbo (3)
Draw: Longbeard Elder
Draw: Lure of Moria
Exhaust Steward of Gondor. +2 Dain (5)
Planning Phase
Play: Fili (Dain -3). Search deck and put Kili into play. Shuffle.
Play: Longbeard Map-Maker (Ori -2, Bifur -1)
Quest Phase
Commit: Ori, Bifur, Bilbo, Erebor Hammersmith, Longbeard Map-Maker x2
Total willpower: 14
Reveal: Dark Bats
Total threat: 9
Place 3 progress on Desolation of Smaug, exploring it
Place 1 progress on Smaug the Golden (1/6).
Make a burgle attempt.
Discard: Pretending to Sleep (discard 2, matching type).
Shuffle player deck. Reveal: Daeron's Runes
Spend 2 Baggins resources to put Daeron's Runes in my hand.
Reveal: Untroubled by Darkness. Discard: Daeron's Runes, Lure of Moria
Take top treasure: Thror's Golden Cup
Travel Phase
No travel
Encounter Phase
Engage Dark Bats
Combat Phase
Deal shadow card to Dark Bats
Dark Bats attack. Dain Ironfoot defends. Shadow: Hidden Path (no effect). No damage dealt.
Fili declares an attack on Dark Bats, destroying them.
Refresh Phase
Ready all
Raise threat to 34
Round 5
Resource Phase
+1 Dain (3), +1 Ori (1), +1 Bifur (2), +1 Bilbo (2)
Draw: Untroubled by Darkness
Draw: Fast Hitch
Exhaust Steward of Gondor. +2 Dain (5)
Planning Phase
Play: Thror's Golden Cup. Attach to Dain.
Add Thror's Golden Cup to the victory display (3).
Draw: Steward of Gondor, Song of Travel, Untroubled by Darkness
Play: Fast Hitch (Bifur -1). Attach to Bilbo.
Quest Phase
Commit: Bilbo, Bifur
Total willpower: 5
Reveal: Dark Bats
Total threat: 7
Raise threat to 36
Travel Phase
No Travel
Encounter Phase
Engage Dark Bats
Combat Phase
Deal shadow card to Dark Bats
Dark Bats attack. Dain defends. Shadow: Known to an Ounce (no effect). No damage dealt.
Ori declares an attack on Dark Bats, destroying them.
Refresh Phase
Ready all
Raise threat to 37
Round 6
Resource Phase
+1 Dain (6), +1 Ori (2), +1 Bifur (2), +1 Bilbo (3)
Draw: Erebor Record Keeper
Draw: Legacy of Durin
Exhaust Steward of Gondor. +2 Dain (8).
Panning Phase
Play none
Quest Phase
Commit: Ori, Bifur, Bilbo, Erebor Hammersmith, Longbeard Map-Maker x2
Total willpower: 14
Reveal: Western Slopes
Total threat: 11
Place 1 progress on Smaug the Golden (2/6).
Make a burgle attempt.
Discard: Belching Fire (discard 1, matching type and cost).
Shuffle player deck. Reveal: Fili. Discard: Longbeard Elder.
Take top treasure: Mithril Shirt
Advance to stage 3A
Remove Smaug the Golden from play.
Add Smaug the Magnificent and A Bare Patch to the staging area.
Travel Phase
No travel
Encounter Phase
No engagements
Combat Phase
Deal shadow card to Smaug the Magnificent
Play: Dawn Take You All (Dain -2). Discard shadow card.
Smaug the Magnificent attacks. Fili defends. Fili is destroyed.
Play: Lure of Moria (Dain -3). Ready all dwarf characters.
Exhaust Fast Hitch. Ready Bilbo.
Ori, Bifur, Bilbo, Kili, Erebor Hammersmith, Longbeard Map-Maker x2 declare an attack on Smaug.
16 attack vs. 8 shield = 8 damage (8/20)
Refresh Phase
Ready all
Raise threat to 38
Round 7
Resource Phase
+1 Dain (4), +1 Ori (3), +1 Bifur (3), +1 Bilbo (4)
Draw: Fili
Draw; Fast Hitch
Exhaust Steward of Gondor. +2 Dain (6)
Planning Phase
Play: Gandalf (Dain -2, Bifur -1, Bilbo -2)
Play: Legacy of Durin (Bifur -1)
Play: Erebor Record Keeper (Bifur -1). Draw: Ancestral Knowledge
Play: Miner of the Iron Hills (Ori -2). Draw: Daeron's Runes
Play Daeron's Runes. Draw: Gandalf, Ancestral Knowledge. Discard: Ancestral Knowledge.
Play: Protector of Lorien (Ori -1). Attach to Bifur.
Play: Song of Travel (Bilbo -1). Attach to Dain.
Quest Phase
Commit: Ori, Bifur, Bilbo, Kili, Erebor Record Keeper, Erebor Hammersmith, Miner of the Iron Hills, Longbeard Map-Maker x2, Gandalf (does not exhaust).
Total willpower: 23
Exhaust Fast Hitch. Ready Bilbo Baggins.
Reveal: Belching Fire. Smaug attacks! Gandalf defends and is destroyed.
Updated willpower: 19
Play: Untroubled by Darkness (Dain -2)
Updated willpower: 27
Play: Untroubled by Darkness (Dain -2)
Updated willpower: 35
Total threat:14
Place 21 progress on stage 3B.
Smaug the Magnificent is removed from play and the game is won!
Final Score
6 Completed Rounds x10: 60
Ending Threat: 38
Total Damage on Heroes: 0
Threat of Destroyed Heroes: 0
Victory Display: -3
Total: 95
Treasure: Thror’s Golden Cup, Mithril Shirt
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